Власть роботов. Как подготовиться к неизбежному - Мартин Форд
202
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Эта оценка пессимистична по сравнению с результатами других опросов. Поскольку многие из них проводились на конференциях по ИИ, охват исследователей с разным профессиональным уровнем был намного более широким. Большинство прогнозов появления универсального ИИ с вероятностью 50 % приходится на 2040–2050 годы. Список опросов см. в сноске 63 в главе 5.
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Наш путешественник во времени вторит бывшему министру финансов и директору Национального экономического совета Лоуренсу Саммерсу, который в ноябре 2016 года предсказал, что к 2050 году от четверти до трети мужчин трудоспособного возраста будут вытеснены из трудовых ресурсов. (См. сноску 1 в главе 6.)
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См., например: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, «The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?», Oxford Martin School Programme on Technology and Employment, Working Paper, September 17, 2013, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf, p. 38.
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Alfred Liu, «Robots to cut 200,000 U. S. bank jobs in next decade, study says,» Bloomberg, October 1, 2019, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-02/robots-to-cut-200-000-u-s-bank-jobs-in-next-decade-study-says.
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Jack Kelly, «Artificial intelligence is superseding well-paying Wall Street jobs,» Forbes, December 10, 2019, www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2019/12/10/artificial-intelligence-is-superseding-well-paying-wall-street-jobs/.
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