Злой рок. Политика катастроф - Нил Фергюсон
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Solomon Hsiang et al., «The Effect of Large-Scale Anti-Contagion Policies on the COVID-19 Pandemic», Nature 584 (June 8, 2020), pp. 262–267, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-24048.
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Amnon Shashua and Shai Shalev-Shwartz, «The Day After COVID-19 Lockdown: Need to Focus on the Vulnerable», Medium, April 27, 2020, https://medium.com/@amnon.shashua/the-day-after-covid19lockdown-needtofocusonthe-vulnerable-42c0a360a27; Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Alessandro Rebucci, «Mandated and Targeted Social Isolation Policies Flatten the COVID-19 Curve and Can Help Mitigate the Associated Employment Losses», VoxEU & CEPR, May 2, 2020, https://voxeu.org/article/mandated-targeted-social-isolation-can-flatten-covid19curve-and-mitigate-employment-losses; Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Alessandro Rebucci, «Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries», Carey Business School Research Paper No. 2003, Johns Hopkins University (April 15, 2020), available at SSRN, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3576703. См. также: M. Gabriela Gomes et al., «Individual Variation in Susceptibility or Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Lowers the Herd Immunity Threshold», MedRxiv, May 2, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893.
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Greg Ip, «New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly», Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-lockdowns-economy-pandemic-recession-business-shutdown-sweden-coronavirus-11598281419.
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Flavia Rotondi, Boris Groendahl, and Stefan Nicola, «Europe’s Reopening Road Map: How 11 Countries Are Beginning to Lift Lockdowns», Fortune, May 4, 2020, https://fortune.com/2020/05/04/reopen-economy-europe-italy-spain-france/.
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Karin Modig and Marcus Ebeling, «Excess Mortality from COVID-19: Weekly Excess Death Rates by Age and Sex for Sweden», MedRxiv, May 15, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.10.20096909.
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«Mobilitätsindikatoren auf Basis von Mobilfunkdaten: Experimentelle Daten», Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), August 3, 2020, https://www.destatis.de/DE/Service/EXDAT/Datensaetze/mobilitaetsindikatoren-mobilfunkdaten.html.
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Alistair Haimes, «It’s Hurting but It’s Just Not Working», The Critic, April 24, 2020, https://thecritic.co.uk/its-hurting-but-its-just-not-working/; Fraser Nelson, «The Threat Has Passed, So Why Are Our Civil Liberties Still Suspended?» Daily Telegraph, June 18, 2020, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/18/threat-has-passed-civil-liberties-still-suspended/.
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Justin McCarthy, «Americans Differ Greatly in Readiness to Return to Normal», Gallup, April 30, 2020, https://news.gallup.com/poll/309578/americans-differ-greatly-readiness-return-normal.aspx.
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Apple Maps, «Mobility Trends Reports», https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility. О разнице в поведении демократов и республиканцев см., напр.: Marcus Painter and Tian Qiu, «Political Beliefs Affect Compliance with COVID-19 Social Distancing Orders», VoxEU & CEPR, May 11, 2020, https://voxeu.org/article/political-beliefs-and-compliance-social-distancing-orders.
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Matthew Cleevely et al., «Stratified Periodic Testing: A Workable Testing Strategy for COVID-19», VoxEU & CEPR, May 6, 2020, https://voxeu.org/article/stratified-periodic-testing-covid19; Edward Luce, «Inside Trump’s Coronavirus Meltdown», Financial Times, May 13, 2020,https://www.ft.com/ content/97dc7de6-940b-11ea-abcd-371e24b679ed;Abbott and Douglas, “How Deadly Is COVID-19?”
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Luca Ferretti et al., «Quantifying SARS-CoV2 Transmission Suggests Epidemic Control with Digital Contact Tracing», Science 368, no. 6491 (May 8, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb6936; https://hbr.org/2020/04/how-digital-contact-tracing-slowed-covid19ineast-asia; Huang Yasheng, Sun Meicen, and Sui Yuze, «How Digital Contact Tracing Slowed COVID-19 in East Asia», Harvard Business Review, April 15, 2020, https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1890; Sharon Otterman, «N. Y. C. Hired 3,000 Workers for Contact Tracing. It’s Off to a Slow Start», New York Times, June 21, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/21/nyregion/nyc-contact-tracing.html; I. Glenn Cohen, Lawrence O. Gostin, and Daniel J. Weitzner, «Digital Smartphone Tracking for COVID-19: Public Health and Civil Liberties in Tension», JAMA 323, no. 23 (May 27, 2020), pp. 2371–2372, https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766675; Swathikan Chidambaram et al., «Observational Study of UK Mobile Health Apps for COVID-19», Lancet Digital Health 2 (June 24, 2020), pp. E388 – E390, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589–7500 (20) 301448.
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Tomas Pueyo, «Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance», Medium, March 19, 2020, https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56.
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Derek Watkins et al., «How the Virus Won», New York Times, June 25, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-spread.html.
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John H. Cochrane, «Dumb Reopening Just Might Work», The Grumpy Economist (blog), May 4, 2020, https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/05/dumb-reopening-might-just-work.html; John H. Cochrane, «An SIR Model with Behavior», The Grumpy Economist (blog), May 4, 2020, https://johnhco chrane.blogspot.com/2020/05/ansir-model-with-behavior.html.
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Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, «Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020», NBER Working Paper
