Economic Security of Entrepreneurship: Specifics of Management in the Context of Financial Instability - Elen Anatolievna Reznik
Let us consider the possibility of using some of these models to predict the bankruptcy of a business entity. Most experts believe that the Altman analytical model is most often used to predict the probability of bankruptcy. This method was developed in 1968 by the US economist E. Altman. The analysis is carried out by finding Z-score, which allows distinguishing business entities into potential bankrupts and nonbankrupts in the first approximation. G. Springate and R. Lis developed other options of the discriminant model. They largely duplicate the Altman model by the number of indicators taken into account but have completely different weights. In the opinion of German experts, the four-factor forecasting model of the British economists R. Taffler and G. Tishou proposed by them in 1977 is of interest. According to the Russian experts, some attempts to develop similar models were made by Russian scientists.
The Russian experts believe that the most common among them is the four-factor model of the bankruptcy risk prediction (R model) developed by the scientists of the Irkutsk State Academy of Economics, according to which the probability of an enterprise bankruptcy depends on the value of the integral coefficient R, as well as a model of predicting the company financial crisis depending on the value of the complex indicator R (R.S. Saifullin, G.G. Kadykov).
As such, according to the results of an expert survey on the possibilities of diagnosing the bankruptcy probability on the basis of econometric models, it has been established that their use significantly improves the quality of analysis. However, the experts from Kazakhstan argue that most of the models presented are designed for economic conditions that differ from those in Kazakhstan. This reduces the objectivity of the conclusions obtained on their basis to a certain extent.
Differences in the rate of inflation, in the fund-, energy-, labor-intensive production, and a different tax climate necessitate the adjustment of the models, as well as using them for forecasting.
According to the experts, the bankruptcy of business entities is inevitable in any national economic system as a reflection of the objective processes of structural adjustment of the economy as a whole. Loss of solvency by a business entity does not always mean termination of its activity and liquidation — it may be a temporary phenomenon that can be overcome by various means of preventing bankruptcy [34].
It is advisable to consider foreign practice when exploring the specifics of the bankruptcy procedure in Kazakhstan. According to the experts, the evolution of world practice in bankruptcy legislation for business entities has two fundamentally different areas of development: the British and the US models. The experts point out that from the position of the British (procreditor) model, bankruptcy is considered as a means of repayment of debts to creditors, accompanied by the debtor liquidation. The purpose of the US (prodebtor) model is the rehabilitation of the enterprise and the restoration of its solvency.
However, there is a trend to combine both principles today in the legislation of developed countries [35]. According to the experts, the efficiency of the system of bankruptcy and liquidation of business entities has an important influence on the conduct of business. Therefore, it is advisable to continue to reform the regulatory policy for bankruptcy procedure, taking the practice of developed European countries into account, since they have a long record of legislation in bankruptcy regulation, in particular, and demonstrate a high level of economic development as well.
As such, the statistical data of Western European countries on the ease of conducting business and the number of bankrupt business entities are reviewed (Table II).
Table II. Dynamics of bankruptcies and quality of the procedure for the liquidation of business entities in Western Europe for 2014 — 2016
When analyzing the expert opinions and the practice of preventing bankruptcy in various countries, it is advisable to single out elements of bankruptcy prevention associated with various forms of state support for business entities.
For example, according to the experts, the direct method of support is for the state to purchase stocks of business entities that are at the stage of the financial crisis. The fundamental principle for the implementation of this approach is the temporary ownership of corporate rights and the implementation of the owner's functions by the state in compliance with the laws of a market economy, i.e., the experts argue that the public package of corporate rights should be managed under the same conditions as for hypothetical private investors.
The experts believe that the conclusion of settlement agreements is also common in many countries. However, the conclusion of the settlement agreement differs by the form and procedure for its implementation among countries. There are two main forms of assignment of creditors, which may provide a settlement agreement: a moratorium (prolongation, debt restructuring) and writing off part of the debt. As a rule, settlement agreements provide for a combination of the two above forms. Concessions from lenders are common in the USA. However, as a rule, when such assignments are made, the creditor requires the enterprise to include its representative in the board of directors of this debtor company — in particular, for taking the financial flows of the enterprise under control.
According to the German experts, prolongation of the terms of debt payment by abandoning the existing financial requirements for a certain time or by providing additional loans is another form of the settlement agreement and a common tool for preventing bankruptcy in the practice of European enterprises.
As the experts point out, the method of preventing the bankruptcy of a business entity through the provision of state guarantees and budget loans has become widespread recently. Budget loans are fairly common at the regional level, while state support in the form of the state guarantees has dominated at the national level for a long time, in particular when resident enterprises raised foreign loans.
The provision of state guarantees is another way to support business entities. However, the experts point out that the state shifts the main functions of
