Нассим Талеб - Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости
65:227-231.
Gripaios,Peter,1994,"TheUseandAbuseofEconomicForecasts."
Management Decision 32(6):61-64. Guedj,Olivier,andJean-PhilippeBouchaud,2006,"Experts'Earning
Forecasts:Bias,HerdingandGossamerInformation,"forthcoming. Guglielmo,Cavallo,andRogerChartier,1997,Histoire de la lecture dans
le monde occidental Paris:EditionsduSeuil. Gurvitch,Georges,1957,"Continuiteetdiscontinueenhistoireet
sociologie."Annales E. S. С: 73-84.
,1966,The Social Framework of Knowledge. NewYork:Harper
Torchbooks.
Hacking,Ian,1965,Logic of Statistical Inference. Cambridge:Cambridge UniversityPress.
,1983,Representing and Intervening: Introductory Topics in the
Philosophy of Natural Science. Cambridge:CambridgeUniversity
Press.
,1990,The Taming of Chance. Cambridge:CambridgeUniversity
Press.
, I999> The Social Construction of What? Cambridge,Mass.:
HarvardUniversityPress.
,2001,An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic.
Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress. Hahn,Frank,1993,"PredictingtheEconomy."InLeoHoweandAlan
Wain,eds.,1993.
Hannon,L.,2003,"Poverty,Delinquency,andEducationalAttainment:
CumulativeDisadvantageorDisadvantageSaturation?"Sociological
Inquiry 73:575-594-Hansen,R.D.,andJ.M.Donoghue,1977,"ThePowerofConsensus:
InformationDerivedfromOne'sOwnandOthers'Behavior."Journal
of Personality and Social Psychology 35:294-302. Hardy,G.H.,1940,A Mathematician's Apology. Cambridge:Cambridge
UniversityPress.
Harris,Olivia,2004,"Braudel:HistoricalTimeandtheHorrorofDiscontinuity."History Workshop Journal 57:161-174. Harvey,N.,1997,"ConfidenceinJudgment."Trends in Cognitive Science «/1:78-82.
Hasher,L.,andR.T.Zacks,1979,"AutomaticandEffortfulProcessesin
Memory."Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 108:356-388. Haug,Espen,2007,Derivatives: Models on Models. NewYork:Wiley. Hausman,DanielM.,ed.,1994,The Philosophy of Economics: An
Anthology, 2nded.NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress. Hayek,F.A.,1945,"TheUseofKnowledgeinSociety." American Economic
Review 35(4):519-530.
,1994,The Road to Serfdom. Chicago:TheUniversityofChicago
Press.
Hecht,JenniferMichael,2003,Doubt: A History. NewYork:Harper Collins.
Hempel,C,1965,Aspects of Scientific Explanation. NewYork:TheFree Press.
Henderson,Bill,andAndreBernard,eds., Rotten Reviews and Rejections. Wainscott,N.Y.:Pushcart.
Hespos,Susan,2006,"PhysicalCausalityinHumanInfants."Inter-disciplinesConferenceonCausality,www.interdisciplines.org.
Hexter,J.H.,1979,On Historians, Reappraisals of Some of the Masters of Modern History. Cambridge,Mass.:HarvardUniversityPress.
Hicks, Steven V., and Alan Rosenberg, 2003,"The 'Philosopher of the
Future* as the Figure of Disruptive Wisdom." Journal of Nietzsche
Studies 25:1-34.
Hilton, Denis, 2003,"Psychology and the Financial Markets: Applications to Understanding and Remedying Irrational Decision-making." In I. Brocas and J. Carillo, eds., 2003.
Hintzman, D. L., G. Nozawa, and M. Irmscher, 1982,"Frequency as
a Nonpropositional Attribute of Memory." Journal of Verbal Learning
and Verbal Behavior 21:127-141.
Hirshleifer, J., and J. G. Riley, 1992,The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hladik, Jean, 2004,Commentlejeune etambitieuxEinstein s'estapproprie la relativite restreinte de Poincare. Paris: Ellipses.
Hoffrage, U., and G. Gigerenzer, 1998,"Using Natural Frequencies to Improve Diagnostic Inferences." Academic Medicine 73(5):538-540.
Hong, Harrison, and Jeffrey Kubik, 2003,"Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts." Journal of Finance 58(1):313-351.
Hopfield, J. J., 1994,"Neurons, Dynamics, and Computation." Physics Today 47:40-46.
Horkheimer, Max, and Theodor W. Adorno, 2002,Dialectic of Enlightenment: Philosophical Fragments. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
House, D. K., 1980,"The Life of Sextus Empiricus." The Classical
Quarterly, New Series 30(1):227-238. Howe, Leo, and Alan Wain, eds., 1993,Predicting the Future. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press. Hsee,С.K., and Y. R. Rottenstreich, 2004,"Music, Pandas and Muggers:
On the Affective Psychology of Value." Journal of Experimental
Psychology, forthcoming.
Hsieh, David A., 1991,"Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to 'pFinancial Markets." Journal of Finance 46(5):1839-1877. Huang, C. F., and R. H. Litzenberger, 1988,Foundations for Financial
Economics. New York/ Amsterdam/London: North-Holland. Huber, J. C, 1998,"Cumulative Advantage and Success-Breeds-Success:
The Value of Time Pattern Analysis." Journal of the American Society
for Information Science and Technology 49:471-476.
17-10770
,2оо2,"ANewModelThatGeneratesLotka'sLaw."Journal of the
American Society for Information Science and Technology 53:209-219.
Huberman,BernardoA.,2001,The Laws of the Web: Patterns in the Ecology of Information. Cambridge,Mass.:TheMITPress.
Hume,David,1748,2000,A Treatise of Human Nature: Being an Attempt to Introduce the Experimental Method of Reasoning into Moral Subjects. Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress.
Humphrey,Nicholas,1992,A History of the Mind: Evolution and the Birth of Consciousness. NewYork:Copernicus.
Husserl;Edmund,1954,The Crisis of European Sciences and Transcendental Phenomenology. Evanston,111.:NorthwesternUniversity Press.
Ierodiakonou,K.,andJ.P.Vandenbroucke,1993,"Medicineas
aStochasticArt."Lancet 341:542-543. Inagaki,Kayoko,andGiyooHatano,2006,"DoYoungChildrenPossess
DistinctCausalitiesfortheThreeCoreDomainsofThought?"
InterdisciplinesConferenceonCausality,www.interdisciplines.org. Jablonski,D.,K.Roy,J.W.Valentine,R.M.Price,andP.S.Anderson,
2003,"TheImpactofthePulloftheRecentontheHistoryofMarine
Diversity."Science 300(5622):1133-1135. Jacob,John,ThomasLys,andMargaretNeale,1999,"Expertisein
ForecastingPerformanceofSecurityAnalysts."Journal of Accounting
and Economics 28:51-82. Jaynes,E.Т.,2003,Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. Cambridge:
CambridgeUniversityPress. Jaynes,Julian,1976,The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the
Bicameral Mind. NewYork:MarinerBooks. Jenkins,Keith,1991,Re-Thinking History. London:Routledge. Jeong,H.,B.Tombor,R.Albert,Z.N.Oltavi,andA.-L.Barabasi,2000,"The
Large-scaleOrganizationofMetabolicNetworks."Nature 407:651-654. Joung,Wendy,BerylHesketh,andAndrewNeal,2006,"Using'War510065'
toTrainforAdaptivePerformance:IsItBettertoLearnfromErroror
Success?"Applied Psychology: An International Review 55(2):282-302. Juslin,P.,1991,Well-calibrated General Knowledge: An Ecological
Inductive Approach to Realism of Confidence. Manuscriptsubmitted
forpublication.Uppsala,Sweden.
,1993,"AnExplanationoftheHard-EasyEffectinStudiesof
RealismofConfidenceinOne'sGeneralKnowledge."European
Journal of Cognitive Psychology 5:55-71.—'
,1994,"TheOverconfidencePhenomenonasaConsequence
ofInformalExperimenter-guidedSelectionofAlmanacItems." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 57:226-246.
Juslin,P.,andH.Olsson,1997,"ThurstonianandBrunswikianOrigins ofUncertaintyinJudgment:ASamplingModelofConfidencein SensoryDiscrimination."Psychological Review 104:344-366.
Juslin,P.,H.Olsson,andM.Bjorkman,1997,"Brunswikianand ThurstonianOriginsofBiasinProbabilityAssessment:Onthe InterpretationofStochasticComponentsofJudgment."Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10:189-209.
Juslin,P.,H.Olsson,andA.Winman,1998,"TheCalibration Issue:TheoreticalCommentsonSuantak,Bolger,andFerrell." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 73:3-26.
Kadane,J.В.,andS.Lichtenstein,1982,"ASubjectivistViewof
Calibration."ReportNo.82-86,Eugene,Ore.:DecisionResearch. Kahneman,D.,2003,"WhyPeopleTakeRisks."InGestire la vulnerability
e I 'incertezza; un incontro internazionale fra studiosi e capi di impresa.
Rome:ItalianInstituteofRiskStudies. Kahneman,D.,E.Diener,andN.Schwarz,eds.,1999,Well-being:
The Foundations of Hedonic Psychology. NewYork:RussellSage
Foundation.
Kahneman,D.,andS.Frederick,2002,"RepresentativenessRevisited:
AttributeSubstitutioninIntuitiveJudgment."InT.Gilovich,
D.Griffin,andD.Kahneman,eds.,2002.'4'>
Kahneman,D.,J.L.Knetsch,andR.H.Thaler,1986,"RationalChoice andtheFramingofDecisions."Journal of Business 59(4):251-278.
Kahneman,D.,andD.Lovallo,1993,"TimidChoicesandBoldForecasts: ACognitivePerspectiveonRisk-taking."Management Science 39: 17-31.
Kahneman,D.,andA.Tversky,1972,"SubjectiveProbability:AJudgment ofRepresentativeness."Cognitive Psychology 3:430-454.
,1973,"OnthePsychologyofPrediction."Psychological Review
80:237-251.
у*979>"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk."
Econometrica 46(2):171-185.*<о / u
,1982,"On the Study of Statistical Intuitions." In D. Kahneman,
P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics
and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
,1996,"On the Reality of Cognitive Illusions." Psychological
Review 103:582-591.
, eds., 2000,Choices, Values, and Frames. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
,1991,"Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and
Status Quo Bias." In D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, eds., 2000.
Kaizoji, Taisei, 2003,"Scaling Behavior in Land Markets." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 326(1-2):256-264.
Kaizoji, Taisei, and Michiyo Kaizoji, 2004,"Power Law for Ensembles of Stock Prices." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 344(1-2),Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis 4(APFA4) (December 1):240-243.
Katz, J. Sylvan, 1999,"The Self-similar Science System." Research Policy 28(5):501-517.
Keen, Steve, 2001,Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor of the Social
Classes. London: Pluto Press. Kemp, C, and J. B. Tenenbaum, 2003,"Theory-based Induction."
Proceedings of the Twenty-fifth Annual Conference of the Cognitive
Science Society, Boston, Mass. Keren, G., 1988,"On the Ability of Assessing Non-verdical Perceptions:
Some Calibration Studies." Acta Psychologica 67:95-119.
,1991,"Calibration and Probability Judgments: Conceptual and
Methodological Issues." Acta Psychologica 77:217-273.
Keynes, JohnMaynard, 1920,Treatise on Probability. London: Macmillan.
,1937,"The General Theory." Quarterly Journal of Economics 51:
209-233.
Kidd, John В., 1970,"The Utilization of Subjective Probabilities in Production Planning." Acta Psychologica 34(2/3):338-347.v «*
Kim, E. Han, Adair Morse, and Luigi Zingales, 2006,"Are Elite Universities Losing Their Competitive Edge?" NBER Working Paper 12245.