Нассим Талеб - Чёрный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости

Silverberg, Gerald, and Bart Verspagen, 2004, "The Size Distribution of Innovations Revisited: An Application of Extreme Value Statistics to Citation and Value Measures of Patent Significance," http://edocs.ub.unimaas.nl/loader/file.asp?id=93i.

--------, 2005, "Self-organization of R&D Search in Complex Technology Spaces", http://www.springerlink.com/content/j277q59458513067/fulltext.pdf.

Simon, Herbert A., 1955, "On a Class of Skew Distribution Functions." Biometrika 42:425-440.

--------, 1987, "Behavioral Economics." In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, and P. Newman, eds., 1987.

Simonton, Dean Keith, 1999, Origins of Genius: Darwinian Perspectives on Creativity. New York: Oxford University Press. 

--------, 2004, Creativity. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Sloman, S. A., 1993, "Feature Based Induction." Cognitive Psychology 25:231-280.

--------, 1994, "When Explanations Compete: The Role of Explanatory Coherence on Judgments of Likelihood." Cognition 52:1-21.

--------, 1996, "The Empirical Case for Two Systems of Reasoning." Psychological Bulletin 119: 3-22.

--------, 1998, "Categorical Inference Is Not a Tree: The Myth of Inheritance Hierarchies." Cognitive Psychology 35:1-33.

--------, 2002, "Two Systems of Reasoning." In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman, eds., 2002.

Sloman, S. А., В. C. Love, and W. Ahn, 1998, "Feature Centrality and Conceptual Coherence." Cognitive Science 22:189-228.

Sloman, S. A., and В. C. Malt, 2003, "Artifacts Are Not Ascribed Essences, Nor Are They Treated as Belonging to Kinds." Language and Cognitive Processes 18:563-582.

Sloman, S. A., and D. Over, 2003, "Probability Judgment from the Inside and Out." In D. Over, ed., Evolution and the Psychology of Thinking: The Debate. New York: Psychology Press.

Sloman, S. A., and L. J. Rips, 1998, "Similarity as an Explanatory Construct." Cognition 65: 87-101.

Slovic, Paul, M. Finucane, E. Peters, and D. G. MacGregor, 2003a, "Rational Actors or Rational Fools? Implications of the Affect Heuristic for Behavioral Economics." Working Paper, www.decisionresearch.com.

--------, 2003b, "Risk as Analysis, Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts About Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, New Orleans, La., December 10, 2002.

Slovic, P., M. Finucane, E. Peters, and D. G. MacGregor, 2002, "The Affect Heuristic." In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman, eds., 2002.

Slovic, P., B. Fischhoff, and S. Lichtenstein, 1976, "Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking." In John S. Carroll and John W. Payne, eds., Cognition and Social Behavior. Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum.

--------, 1977, "Behavioral Decision Theory." Annual Review of Psychology 28:1-39. 

Slovic, Р., В. Fischhoff, S. Lichtenstein, B. Corrigan, and B. Combs, 1977, "Preference for Insuring Against Probable Small Losses: Implications for the Theory and Practice of Insurance." Journal of Risk and Insurance 44: 237-258. Reprinted in P. Slovic, ed., The Perception of Risk. London: Earthscan.

Slovic, Paul, 1987, "Perception of Risk." Science 236: 280-285.

--------, 2001, The Perception of Risk. London: Earthscan.

Sniezek, J. A., and R. A. Henry, 1989, "Accuracy and Confidence in Group Judgement." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 43(11): 1-28.

Sniezek, J. A., and T. Buckley, 1993, "Decision Errors Made by Individuals and Groups." In N. J. Castellan, ed., Individual and Group Decision Making. Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum.

Snyder, A. W., 2001, "Paradox of the Savant Mind." Nature 413: 251-252.

Snyder A. W. E. Mulcahy, J. L. Taylor, D. J. Mitchell, P. Sachdev, and S. C. Gandevia, 2003, "Savant-like Skills Exposed in Normal People by Suppression of the Left Fronto-temporal Lobe. Journal of Integrative Neuroscience 2:149-158.

Soll, J. В., 1996, "Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 65:117-137.

Sornette, D., F. Deschatres, T. Gilbert, and Y. Ageon, 2004, "Endogenous Versus Exogenous Shocks in Complex Networks: An Empirical Test." Physical Review Letters 93: 228701.

Sornette, D., and K. Ide, 2001, "The Kalman-Levy Filter," PhysicaD 151: 142-174.

Sornette, Didier, 2003, Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

--------, 2004, Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences: Chaos, Fractals, Self-organization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools, 2nd ed. Berlin and Heidelberg.

Springer. Sornette, Didier, and Daniel Zajdenweber, 1999, "The Economic Return of Research: The Pareto Law and Its Implications." European Physical Journal В 8(4): 653-664.

Soros, George, 1988, The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market. New York: Simon &c Schuster. 

Spariosu, Mihai I., 2004, The University of Global Intelligence and Human Development: Towards an Ecology of Global Learning. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

Spasser, Mark A., 1997, "The Enacted Fate of Undiscovered Public Knowledge." Journal of the American Society for Information Science 48(8): 707-717.

Spencer, B. A., and G. S. Taylor, 1988, "Effects of Facial Attractiveness and Gender on Causal Attributions of Managerial Performance." Sex Roles 19(5/6): 273-285.

Sperber, Dan, 1996a, La contagion des idees. Paris: Odile Jacob.

--------, 1996b, Explaining Culture: A Naturalistic Approach. Oxford: Blackwell.

--------, 1997, "Intuitive and Reflective Beliefs." Mind and Language 12(1): 67-83.

--------, 2001, "An- Evolutionary Perspective on Testimony and Argumentation." Philosophical Topics 29:401-413.

Sperber, Dan, and Deirdre Wilson, 1995, Relevance: Communication and Cognition, 2nd ed. Oxford: Blackwell.

--------, 2004a, "Relevance Theory." In L. R. Horn, and G. Ward, eds., The Handbook of Pragmatics. Oxford: Blackwell.

--------, 2004b, "The Cognitive Foundations of Cultural Stability and Diversity." Trends in Cognitive Sciences 8(1): 40-44.

Squire, Larry, and Eric R. Kandel, 2000, Memory: From Mind to Molecules. New York: Owl Books.

Stanley, H. E., L. A. N. Amaral, P. Gopikrishnan, and V. Plerou, 2000, "Scale Invariance and Universality of Economic Fluctuations." Physica A 283: 31-41.

Stanley, T. J., 2000, The Millionaire Mind. Kansas City: Andrews McMeel Publishing.

Stanley, T. J., and W. D. Danko, 1996, The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy. Atlanta, Ga.: Longstreet Press.

Stanovich, K., and R. West, 2000, "Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate." Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23: 645-665.

Stanovich, К. E., 1986, "Matthew Effects in Reading: Some Consequences of Individual Differences in the acquisition of literacy." Reading Research Quarterly 21: 360-407. 

Stein, D. L., ed., 1989, Lectures in the Sciences of Complexity. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.

Sterelny, Kim, 2001, Dawkins vs. Gould: Survival of the Fittest. Cambridge, England: Totem Books.

Stewart, Ian, 1989, Does God Play Dice? The New Mathematics of Chaos. London: Penguin Books.

--------, 1993, "Chaos." In Leo Howe and Alan Wain, eds., 1993.

Stigler, Stephen M., 1986, The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty Before 1900. Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University.

--------, 2002, Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

Stiglitz, Joseph, 1994, Whither Socialism. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

Strawson, Galen, 1994, Mental Reality. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

--------, 2004, "Against Narrativity." Ratio 17: 428-452.

Strogatz, S. H., 1994, Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos, with Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.

Strogatz, Steven H., 2001, "Exploring Complex Networks." Nature 410: 268-276.

--------, 2003, Sync: How Order Emerges from Chaos in the Universe, Nature, and Daily Life. New York: Hyperion.

Suantak, L., F. Bolger, and W. R. Ferrell, 1996, "The Hard-easy Effect in Subjective Probability Calibration." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 67: 201-221.

Suddendorf, Thomas, 2006, "Enhanced: Foresight and Evolution of the Human Mind." Science 312(5776): 1006-1007.

Sullivan, R., A. Timmermann, and H. White, 1999, "Data-snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap." Journal of Finance 54:1647-1692.

Sunstein, Cass R., 2002, Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Surowiecki, James, 2004, The Wisdom of Crowds. New York: Doubleday.

Sushil, Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch, 1992, "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades." Journal of Political Economy 100(5): 992-1026. 

Sutton, J., 1997, "Gibrat's Legacy." Journal of Economic Literature 35: 40-59.

Swanson, D. R., 1986a, "Fish Oil, Raynaud's Syndrome and Undiscovered Public Knowledge." Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 30(1): 7-18.

--------, 1986b, "Undiscovered Public Knowledge." Library Quarterly 56:103-118.

--------, 1987, "Two Medical Literatures That Are Logically but Not Bibliographically Connected." Journal of the American Society for Information Science 38: 228-233.

Swets, J. A., R. M. Dawes, and J. Monahan, 2000a, "Better Decisions Through Science." Scientific American (October): 82-87.

--------, 2000b, "Psychological Science Can Improve Diagnostic Decisions." Psychogical Science in the Public Interest 1:1-26.

Szenberg, Michael, ed., 1992, Eminent Economists: Their Life Philosophies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Tabor, M., 1989, Chaos and Integrability in Nonlinear Dynamics: An Introduction. New York: Wiley.

Taine, Hippolyte Adolphe, 1868,1905. Les philosophes classiques duXIXe sitcle en France, дёте ed. Paris: Hachette.

Taleb, N. N., 1997, Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options. New York: Wiley.

--------, 2004a, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. New York: Random House.

--------, 2004b, "These Extreme Exceptions of Commodity Derivatives." In Helyette Geman, Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. New York: Wiley.

--------, 2004c, "Bleed or Blowup: What Does Empirical Psychology Tell Us About the Preference for Negative Skewness?" Journal of Behavioral Finance 5(1): 2-7.

--------, 2004d, "The Black Swan: Why Don't We Learn That We Don't Learn?" Paper presented at the United States Department of Defense Highland Forum, Summer 2004.

--------, 2004e, "Roots of Unfairness." Literary Research/Recherche Litteraire 21(41-42): 241-254.

--------, 2004f, "On Skewness in Investment Choices." Greenwich Roundtable Quarterly 2. 

--------, 2005, "Fat Tails, Asymmetric Knowledge, and Decision Making: Essay in Honor of Benoit Mandelbrot's 8oth Birthday." Technical paper series, Wilmott (March): 56-59.

--------, 2006a, "Homo Ludens and Homo Economicus." Foreword to Aaron Brown's The Poker Face of Wall Street. New York: Wiley.

--------, 2006b, "On Forecasting." In John Brockman, ed., In What We Believe But Cannot Prove: Today's Leading Thinkers on Science in the Age of Certainty. New York: Harper Perennial.

--------, 2007, "Scale Invariance in Practice: Some Patches and Workable Fixes." Preprint.

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, and Avital Pilpel, 2004, "I problemi epistemologici del risk management." In Daniele Pace, a cura di, Economia del rischio: Antologia di scritti su rischio e decisione economica. Milano: Giuffre.

Tashman, Leonard J., 2000, "Out of Sample Tests of Forecasting Accuracy: An Analysis and Review." International Journal of Forecasting 16(4): 437-450.

Teigen, К. H., 1974, "Overestimation of Subjective Probabilities." Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 15: 56-62.

Terracciano, A., et al., 2005, "National Character Does Not Reflect Mean Personality Traits." Science 310: 96.

Tetlock, Philip E., 1999, "Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?" American Journal of Political Science 43(2): 335-366.

--------, 2005, "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?" Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Thaler, Richard, 1985, "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice." Marketing Science 4(3): 199-214.

Тhом, Rene, 1980, Paraboles et catastrophes. Paris: Champs Flammarion.

--------, 1993, Predire nfest pas expliquer. Paris: Champs Flammarion.

Thorley, 1999, "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume." Working Paper, Santa Clara University.

Tilly, Charles, 2006, Why? What Happens When People Give Reasons and Why Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Tinbergen, N., 1963, "On Aims and Methods in Ethology." Zeitschriftfur Tierpsychologie 20: 410-433.

--------, 1968, "On War and Peace in Animals and Man: An Ethologist's Approach to the Biology of Aggression." Science 160:1411-1418.

Tobin, James, 1958, "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk." Review of Economic Studies 67: 65-86.

Triantis, Alexander J., and James E. Hodder, 1990, "Valuing Flexibility as a Complex Option." Journal of Finance 45(2): 549-564.

Trivers, Robert, 2002, Natural Selection and Social Theory: Selected Papers of Robert Trivers. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Turner, Mark, 1996, The Literary Mind. New York: Oxford University Press.

Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1971, "Belief in the Law of Small Numbers." Psychology Bulletin 76(2): 105-110.

--------, 1973, "Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability." Cognitive Psychology 5: 207-232.

--------, 1974, "Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases." Science 185:1124—1131.

--------, 1982, "Evidential Impact of Base-Rates." In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

--------, 1983, "Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment." Psychological Review 90: 293-315.

--------, 1992, "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5:297-323.

Tversky, A., and D. J. Koehler, 1994, "Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability." Psychological Review 101: 547"5б7.

Tyszka, Т., and P. Zielonka, 2002, "Expert Judgments: Financial Analysts Versus Weather Forecasters." Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets 3(3): 152-160.

Uglow, Jenny, 2003, The Lunar Men: Five Friends Whose Curiosity Changed the World. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.