Нассим Талеб - Чёрный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости

Lichtenstein, Sarah, and Baruch Fischhoff, 1977, «Do Those Who Know More Also Know More About How Much They Know? The Calibration of Probability Judgments.» Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 20:159–183.

Lichtenstein, Sarah, and Baruch Fischhoff, 1981, «The Effects of Gender and Instructions on Calibration.» Decision Research Report 81–5. Eugene, Ore.: Decision Research.

Lichtenstein, Sarah, Baruch Fischhoff, and Lawrence Phillips, 1982, «Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980.» In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Lim, Т., 2001, «Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias.» Journal ofFinanee 56(1): 369–385.

Lissowski, Grzegorz, Tadeusz lyszka, and Wlodzimierz Okrasa, 1991, «Principles of Distributive Justice: Experiments in Poland and America.» Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(1): 98–119.

Liu, Jing, 1998, «Post-Earnings Announcement Drift and Analysts' Forecasts.» Working Paper, UCLA.

Loewenstein, G. F., E. U. Weber, С. K. Hsee, and E. S. Welch, 2001, «Risk as Feelings.» Psychological Bulletin 127: 267–286.

Loewenstein, George, 1992, «The Fall and Rise of Psychological Explanations in the Economics of Intertemporal Choice.» In George Loewenstein and Jon Elster, eds., Choice over Time. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

Loftus, Elizabeth F., and Katherine Ketcham, 1994, The Myth of Repressed Memory: False Memories and Allegations and Sexual Abuse. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Lotka, Alfred J., 1926, «The Frequency Distribution of Scientific Productivity.» Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences 16(12): 317–323.

Lowenstein, R., 2000, When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.

Lucas, Robert E., 1978, «Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy.» Econometrica 46:1429–1445.

Luce, R. D., and H. Raiffa, 1957, Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey. New York: Wiley.

Mach, Е., 1896, «On the Part Played by Accident in Invention and Discovery.» Monist 6:161–175.

Machina, M. J., and M. Rothschild, 1987, «Risk.» In J. Eatwell, M. Mil-gate, and P. Newman, eds., 1987.

Magee, Bryan, 1985, Philosophy and the Real World: An Introduction to Karl Popper La Salle, 111.: Open Court Books.

-, 1997, Confessions of a Philosopher. London: Weidenfeld &c Nicolson.

Maines, L. A., and J. R. Hand, 1996, «Individuals' Perceptions and Misperceptions of Time-series Properties of Quarterly Earnings.» Accounting Review 71: 317–336.

Makridakis, S., A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, R. Parzen, and R. Winkler, 1982, «The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods: Results of a Forecasting Competition.» Journal of Forecasting 1: ш-153.

Makridakis, S., C. Chatfield, M. Hibon, M. Lawrence, T. Mills, K. Ord, and L. F. Simmons, 1993, «The M2-Competition: A Real-Time Judgmentally Based Forecasting Study» (with commentary). International Journal of Forecasting 5:29.

Makridakis, S., and M. Hibon, 2000, «The Мз-Competition: Results, Conclusions and Implications.» International Journal of Forecasting 16:451–476.

Mandelbrot, В., 1963, «The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices.» Journal of Business 36(4): 394–419.

Mandelbrot, Benoit, 1965, «Information Theory and Psycholinguistics.» In B. Wolman and E. Nagel, eds., Scientific Psychology: Principles and Approaches. New York: Basic Books.

-, 1975, Les objets fractals: forme, hasard, et dimension. Paris: Flammarion.

-, 1982, The Fractal Geometry of Nature. New York: W. H. Freeman and Company.

-, 1997a, Fractales, hasard et finance. Paris: Flammarion.

-, 1997b, Fractals and Scaling in Finance: Discontinuity, Concentration, Risk. New York: Springer-Verlag.

Mandelbrot, Benoit, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2006a, «A Focus on the Exceptions That Prove the Rule.» In Mastering Uncertainty: Financial Times Series.

-, 2006b, «Matematica della sagessa.» // Sole 24 Ore, October 9.

-, 2007а, «Random Jump Not Random Walk.» Manuscript.

-, 2007b, «Mild vs. Wild Randomness: Focusing on Risks that Matter.» Forthcoming in Frank Diebold, Neil Doherty, and Richard Herring, eds., The Known, the Unknown and the Unknowable in Financial Institutions. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Mandler, J. M., and L. McDonough, 1998, «Studies in Inductive Inference in Infancy.» Cognitive Psychology 37: 60–96.

Margalit, Avishai, 2002, The Ethics of Memory. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

Markowitz, Harry, 1952, «Portfolio Selection.» Journal of Finance (March): 77–91.

-, 1959, Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments, 2nd ed. New York: Wiley.

Marmott, Michael, 2004, The Status Syndrome: How Social Standing Affects Our Health and Longevity. London: Bloomsbury.

Marr, D., 1982, Vision. New York: W. H. Freeman and Company.

Masters, John, 1969, Casanova. New York: Bernard Geis Associates.

May, R. M., 1973, Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

May, R. S., 1986, «Overconfidence as a Result of Incomplete and Wrong Knowledge.» In R. W. Scholz, ed., Current Issues in West German Decision Research. Frankfurt am Main, Germany: Lang.

Mayseless, O., and A. W. Kruglanski, 1987, «What Makes You So Sure? Effects of Epistemic Motivations on Judgmental Confidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes» 39:162–183.

McClelland, A. G. R., and F. Bolger, 1994, «The Calibration of Subjective Probabilities: Theories and Models, 1980–1994.» In G. Wright and P. Ayton, eds., Subjective Probability. Chichester, England: Wiley.

McCloskey, Deirdre, 1990, If You're So Smart: The Narrative of Economic Expertise. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

-, 1992, «The Art of Forecasting: From Ancient to Modern Times.» Cato Journal 12(1): 23–43.

McClure, Samuel M., David I. Laibson, George F. Loewenstein, and Jonathan D. Cohen, 2004, «Separate Neural Systems Value Immediate and Delayed Monetary Rewards.» Science 306(5695): 503–507.

McManus, Chris, 2002, Right Hand, Left Hand. London: Orion Books.

McNees, Stephen К., 1978, «Rebuttal of Armstrong.» Journal of Business 5i(4): 573–577.

-, 1995, «An Assessment of the 'Official1 Economic Forecasts.» New England Economic Review (July/August): 13–23.

McNeill, William H., 1976, Plagues and Peoples. New York: Anchor Books.

Medawar, Peter, 1996, The Strange Case of the Spotted Mice and Other Classic Essays on Science. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Meehl, Paul E., 1954, Clinical Versus Statistical Predictions: A Theoretical Analysis and Revision of the Literature. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.

-, 1973, «Why I Do Not Attend in Case Conferences.» In Psychodiagnosis: Selected Papers, 225–302. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.

Mendenhall, Richard R., 1991, «Evidence of Possible Underweighting of Earnings-related Information.» Journal of Accounting Research 29: 170–178.

Merton, R. K., 1968. «The Matthew Effect in Science.» Science 159: 56–63.

-, 1973a, «The Matthew Effect in Science.» In N. Storer, ed., The Sociology of Science. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

-, 1973b, «The Normative Structure of Science.» In N. Storer, ed., The Sociology of Science. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

-, 1988, «The Matthew Effect II: Cumulative Advantage and the Symbolism of Intellectual Property.» Isis 79: 606–623.

Merton, Robert C, 1972, «An Analytic Derivation of the Efficient Portfolio Frontier.» Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 7(4): 1851–1872.

-, 1992, Continuous-Time Finance, 2nd ed. Cambridge, England: Blackwell.

Merton, Robert K., and Elinor Barber, 2004, The Travels and Adventures of Serendipity. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Mihailescu, Calin, 2006, Lotophysics. Preprint, University of Western Ontario.

Mikhail, M. В., В. R. Walther, and R. H. Willis, 1999, «Does Forecast Accuracy Matter to Security Analysts?» The Accounting Review 74(2): 185–200.

Mikhail, Michael В., Beverly R. Walther, and Richard H. Willis, 1997, «Do Security Analysts Improve Their Performance with Experience?» Journal of Accounting Research 35:131–157.

Milgram, S., 1967, «The Small World Problem.» Psychology Today 2: 60–67.

Mill, John Stuart, i860, A System of Logic Ratiocinative and Inductive, Being a Connected View of the Principle of Evidence and the Methods of Scientific Investigation, 3rd ed. London: John W. Parker, West Strand.

Miller, Dale Т., and Michael Ross, 1975, «Self-Serving Biases in Attribution of Causality: Fact or Fiction?» Psychological Bulletin 82(2): 213–225.

Miller, Geoffrey E, 2000, The Mating Mind: How Sexual Choice Shaped the Evolution of Human Nature. New York: Doubleday.

Minsky, H., 1982, Can It Happen Again? Essays on Instability and Finance. Armonk, N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe.

Mitzenmacher, Michael, 2003, «A Brief History of Generative Models for Power Law and Lognormal Distributions.» Internet Mathematics 1(2): 226–251.

Mohr, С, T. Landis, H. S. Bracha, and P. Brugger, 2003, «Opposite Turning Behavior in Righthanders and Non-right-handers Suggests a Link Between Handedness and Cerebral Dopamine Asymmetries.» Behavioral Neuroscience 117(6): 1448–1452.

Mokyr, Joel, 2002, The Gifts of Athena. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Montier, James, 2007, Applied Behavioural Finance. Chichester, England: Wiley.

Moon, Francis C, 1992, Chaotic and Fractal Dynamics. New York: Wiley. Mossner, E. C, 1970, The Life of David Hume. Oxford: Clarendon Press. Murphy, A. H., and R. Winkler, 1984, «Probability Forecasting in Meteorology.» Journal of the American Statistical Association 79:489–500.

Myers, David G., 2002, Intuition: Its Powers and Perils. New Haven,Conn.: Yale University Press.

Nader, K., and J. E. LeDoux, 1999, «The Dopaminergic Modulation of Fear: Quinpirole Impairs the Recall of Emotional Memories in Rats.» Behavioral Neuroscience 113(1): 152–165.

Naya, Emmanuel, and Anne-Pascale Pouey-Mounou, 2005, Eloge de la mediocrite. Paris: Editions Rue d'ulm.

Nelson, Lynn Hankinson, and Jack Nelson, 2000, On Quine. Belmont, Calif.: Wadsworth.

Nelson, Robert H., 2001, Economics as a Religion: From Samuelson to Chicago and Beyond. University Park, Penn.: The Pennsylvania State University Press.

Newell, A., and H. A. Simon, 1972, Human Problem Solving. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.

Newman, M., 2003, «The Structure and Function of Complex Networks.» SI AM Review 45:167–256.

Newman, M. E. J., 2000, «Models of the Small World: A Review.» Journal of Statistical Physics 101: 819–841.

-, 2001, «The Structure of Scientific Collaboration Networks.» Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 98: 404–409.

-, 2005, «Power Laws, Pareto Distributions, and Zipf s Law.» Complexity Digest 2005.02:1–27.

Newman, M. E. J., C. Moore, and D. J. Watts, 2000, «Mean-field Solution of the Small-World Network Model.» Physical Review Letters 84: 3201–3204.

Newman, M. E. J., D. J. Watts, and S. H. Strogatz, 2000, «Random Graphs with Arbitrary Degree Distribution and Their Applications.» Preprint cond-mat/0007235 at http://xxx.lanl.gov.

Neyman, J., 1977, «Frequentist Probability and Frequentist Statistics.» Synthese 36: 97–131.

Nietzsche, Friedrich, 1979, Ecce Homo. London: Penguin Books.

Nisbett, R. E., D. H. Krantz, D. H. Jepson, and Z. Kunda, 1983, «The Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday Inductive Reasoning.» Psychological Review 90: 339–363.

Nisbett, Richard E., and Timothy D. Wilson, 1977, «Telling More Than We Can Know: Verbal Reports on Mental Processes.» Psychological Bulletin 84(3): 231–259.

Nussbaum, Martha C, 1986, The Fragility of Goodness: Luck and Ethics in Greek Tragedy and Philosophy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

O'Connor, M., and M. Lawrence, 1989, «An Examination of the Accuracy of Judgment Confidence Intervals in Time Series Forecasting.» International Journal of Forecasting 8:141–155.

O'Neill, Brian С. and Mausami Desai, 2005, «Accuracy of Past Projections of U.S. Energy Consumption.» Energy Policy 33: 979–993.

Oberauer К., O. Wilhelm, and R. R. Diaz, 1999, «Bayesian Rationality for the Wason Selection Task? A Test of Optimal Data Selection Theory.» Thinking and Reasoning 5(2): 115–144.

Odean, Terrance, 1998a, «Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?» Journal of Finance 53(5): 1775–1798.

-, 1998b. «Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average.» Journal of Finance 53(6): 1887–1934.

Officer, R. R., 1972, «The Distribution of Stock Returns.» Journal of the American Statistical Association 340(67): 807–812.

Olsson, Erik J., 2006, Knowledge and Inquiry: Essays on the Pragmatism of Isaac Levi. Cambridge Studies in Probability, Induction and Decision Theory Series. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Onkal, D., J. F. Yates, C. Simga-Mugan, and S. Oztin, 2003, «Professional and Amateur Judgment Accuracy: The Case of Foreign Exchange Rates.» Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 91:169–185.

Ormerod, Paul, 2005, Why Most Things Fail. New York: Pantheon Books.

-, 2006, «Hayek, 'The Intellectuals and Socialism/ and Weighted Scale-free Networks.» Economic Affairs 26:1–41.

Oskamp, Stuart, 1965, «Overconfidence in Case-Study Judgments.» Journal of Consulting Psychology 29(3): 261–265.

Paese, P. W. and J. A. Sniezek, 1991, «Influences on the Appropriateness of Confidence in Judgment: Practice, Effort, Information, and Decision Making.» Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 48:100–130.

Page, Scott, 2007, The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Can Create Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Pais, Abraham, 1982, Subtle Is the Lord. New York: Oxford University Press.

Pareto, Vilfredo, 1896, Cours d'economie politique. Geneva: Droz. Park, David, 2005, The Grand Contraption: The World as Myth, Number, and Chance. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Paulos, John Allen, 1988, Innumeracy. New York: Hill &C Wang.

-, 2003, A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market. Boston: Basic Books.

Pearl, J., 2000, Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Peirce, Charles Sanders, 1923,1998, Chance, Love and Logic: Philosophical Essays. Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press.

-, 1955, Philosophical Writings of Peirce, edited by J. Buchler. New York: Dover.

Penrose, Roger, 1989, The Emperor's New Mind. New York: Penguin.

PeREZ, C. J., A. Corral, A. Diaz-Guilera, K. Christensen, and A. Arenas, 1996, «On Self-organized Criticality and Synchronization in Lattice Models of Coupled Dynamical Systems.» International Journal of Modern Physics В ю: 1111–1151.